The analysis of bypoll results declared for 14 seats ( 4 Lok Sabha and10 Vidhan Sabha) held across 10 states mainly UP, Bihar, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Punjab , Uttrakhand, Meghalaya, Nagaland, West Bengal and Kerala has created panic among think- tank in BJP. According to the past performance of BJP government in Lok Sabha near about 45% of poll was in BJP’s favour, but due to some factors BJP party is losing this percentage gradually and steadily.
Analysis of Bypoll Results
- BJP (NDA) tally has been reduced by half.
- INC (UPA) has increased to double.
- Regional parties with the support of INC (Indian National Congress) have increased in strength.
- Out of 14 seats, 8 were held by the previous parties.
- Out of 6 seats which changed hands, BJP loses 5.
BJP needs to handle Mahagathbandhan as soon as possible
Mahagathbandhan possess serious threat to BJP in UP- Bihar politics. After Losing Gorakhpur and Phulpur elections in the past, BJP has not been successful to counter strategies posed by Mahagathbandhan and this failure of BJP still continues in Kairana Lok sabha seat and Noorpur Vidhan Sabha seat. The threat is so serious to BJP that the margin of victory at Kairana seat is 44,618 votes.
The story of Kairana election itself establishes the downfall in Modi’s charisma, as in 2014 Lok Sabha election, Kairana Lok Sabha seat showed a whopping margin 2, 36,000 votes and it can be very well said BJP’s vote share declined by 3-7% and MGB gained a vote share of 4.2%.
If MGB party contest 2017 election together then vote share which can fall in their favour could be higher 56.4%.
If Allies are not satisfied, BJP can face serious issues in forming 2019 government
The sweet and sour relationship between Shiv Sena and BJP have hit rock bottom, further Bypoll results have played a role of a catalyst between the two political giants. Shiv Sena has been expressing its unhappiness with BJP for a long time and if statistics comes in future play that is INC+ Shiv Sena+ NCP, then their vote share in Maharashtra would be exactly double(55.2%) than that of BJP in Maharashtra(27.6%). Now this trio will surely damage BJP in Maharashtra and can make the latter sit in opposition in future elections.
It’s not about Shiv Sena who is unhappy with BJP senior leadership; BJP also lost support of TDP in Andhra Pradesh. Though BJP says there is no difference of opinion among NDA regarding senior leadership of BJP but many times Alliances connected with BJP have expressed their opinion against BJP.
2019: The bigger picture
According to sources, the Lok Sabha scenario for BJP in 2019 election would be different as that of 2014. And this realisation has made Modi to realise that for forming 2019 government, support of Allies is extremely important. And after decision of TDP (separating themselves from BJP) and sweet and sour relationship of BJP with different parties, it is quite clear that formation of the BJP government with the support of Alliances could be difficult.
The game is still on. While the opposition is making all possible efforts and fixing all arthematic and chemistry equation to form 2019 government. On the contrast BJP is banking on same repetitive slogan i.e., Modi’s Magic and development talks brace yourself for roller coaster ride.